Résumé: Quantitative causal modelling techniques assumes great prominence in any manufacturing or supply chain environments. A novel causal modelling technique, the Grey Causal Modelling (GCM) is proposed in this research that can model complex causal relationships in a system. The GCM technique, as illustrated in this study can consider four features in a complex causal modelling situation, which are characterised as; the events, the outcomes, the objectives, and the effects. The implementation of the proposed methodology involves a two-phase approach and the same needs evaluation data from experts in two stages. We also propose the idea of magnitude plots to quantify and represent the cause-consequence (event-outcome) relations in GCM. The application of GCM technique is demonstrated with two numerical examples in manufacturing environment. Also, a practical problem for achieving resilience and sustainability objectives in a case supply chain is solved. The methodology is implemented following a seven step procedure for the case, which briefly include; identification of key factors, obtain the influence ratings, separate the events and outcomes, rank the event-outcome pairs for each objectives, calculate the effects for situation sets, obtain the magnitude of effects and make the magnitude plots, and build the causal magnitude table and prioritise the causal factors. From the analysis of results of the case, it is seen that redundancy and adaptability emerge as the critical causal factors for the supply chain in consideration of resilience and sustainability objectives, together. The GCM technique, as proposed in this research will be useful for practitioners in manufacturing, supply chains, and in other areas such as; management, social sciences, and natural sciences, as they can analyze complex cause-consequence relationships among factors in a system.

Langue: Anglais